This is an actuary gone rogue story. Actuaries assess all kinds of risk and in this case it's in the realm of sports betting. This is a look at how anyone can methodically setup a program to imitate and model future states of the world in a probabilistic manner. The world is not just win-lose-tie, black or white, up or down, but more of a sliding scale or spectrum of results. Learn to think in probabilities and use that information to make better decisions. This is a dive into getting fired and being scared to developing a sports model in Microsoft Excel and using that model to bet thousands of dollars on the 2018 World Cup in Russia, with no regrets.

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